An Important Source of Uncertainty: Modeller

Suzan Gazioglu, E Marian Scott


Uncertainty in predictions of models arrises from, among other sources, the model structure representing the real world system, the scenario reflecting different views of the future, the uncertainty in the model parameters, and the model code. Attention has been devoted to studying these sources of uncertainties. The fundamental purpose of this study is to identify and highlight the significance of another important source of uncertainty which is often ignored. We call this type of uncertainty 'modeller uncertainty' which may arise because of a number of reasons, such as different modeller's interpretation of both the model and the scenario can vary, different modellers can draw different conclusions from the same output depending on the context of the problem and the attitude of the modeller, the modeller's limited experience of modelling concepts, and the modeller's incomplete knowledge of the system being modeled. Therefore, the resulting model predictions can depend largely upon a modeller. In this study, we look at this aspect of uncertainty in the context of environmental radioactivity modeling, using real world data from the Chernobyl accident.


Chernobyl accident; Environmental models; Model testing; Uncertainty

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