Simultaneous price and demand forecasting in smart power distribution grid

Abstract

Today's competitive world and economy is heavily dependent on electrical energy. Since electricity cannot be stored and producing more or less than the required needs may lead to some losses. The electric charge forecasting and pricing are considered as the main factors in planning and decision-making for future development plans and operation of power systems. In the future smart grids, electricity consumers will be able to react to changes in electricity prices. The total response of consumers to price could potentially shift the demand curve in the market. As a result, prices may vary from original projections. In this paper, a forecasting framework is proposed that offers such dynamics in predicting the electricity price demand. In this framework, a mechanism based on principles of data mining data mining to determine the patterns in response to changes in consumer demand and prices are used. In this model, the weather conditions (temperature and humidity), the days and special holidays are considered. And the results are expected to be done hourly, daily. Simulation results of the proposed method for forecasting demand and prices, which were obtained using the Australian electricity market, indicates that error is less compared to the previous methods.